CAMPAIGN 2008

Not gambling on a governor

Poll finds opposition to casinos doesn't equal support for Fletcher

By John Stamper

After watching a month's worth of Gov. Ernie Fletcher's anti-casino ads, a plurality of Kentucky voters oppose casinos but haven't pledged support for the governor, according to a new poll.

After watching a month's worth of Gov. Ernie Fletcher's anti-casino ads, a plurality of Kentucky voters oppose casinos but haven't pledged support for the governor, according to a new poll.

Unfortunately for Fletcher, an overwhelming majority of voters want the chance to decide the casino issue at the ballot box, a position pushed by his Democratic challenger, Steve Beshear.

Casino advocates contend Fletcher's stance against a vote on the issue is a key reason his anti-casino platform has failed to narrow the 17-point lead Beshear holds in the race, according to a new Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll.

"Kentuckians want this resolved and they want their voice heard," said Patrick Neely, executive director of the pro-casino Kentucky Equine Education Project. "That's one of the reasons that this message hasn't gained traction."

Fletcher has tried to address voters' desire to decide the casino issue by painting the gubernatorial election as a "referendum" on casinos, but the message isn't working, said Del Ali, the pollster who conducted the survey of 600 likely voters.

Issues such as job creation, health care and education are affecting the votes of about as many people, the survey found.

"Casino gambling is not the issue driving the gubernatorial election," Ali said.

Further muddying Fletcher's message is the fact that he only recently began opposing a public vote on whether to allow casinos.

After saying for years that he wouldn't block state lawmakers from putting the issue on the ballot, Fletcher changed his position this summer and said he will fight against allowing voters to consider a constitutional amendment on the subject.

Given that 82 percent of those surveyed favor a vote, Fletcher's new position "is really not smart," Ali said.

Only 11 percent of respondents oppose a vote on casinos. Seven percent are not sure.

The poll was conducted Sept. 10-13 by Olney, Md.-based Research 2000 and has a margin of error of four percentage points.

Although Fletcher has seen little benefit from his anti-casino ads, support for casinos has declined when compared with previous polls.

The Herald-Leader/Action News 36 poll found that 48 percent of likely voters oppose casinos, compared with 42 percent who support them. Ten percent were not sure.

In comparison, The Courier-Journal found in February that 52 percent of those surveyed supported putting casinos at racetracks. In May, 63 percent of those polled by SurveyUSA said casinos should be allowed in the state.

"As Kentuckians are becoming more educated on the issue and the experiences of other states, they're recognizing that the state should not welcome a predatory peddler of an addictive product," said John-Mark Hack, chairman of the Say No to Casinos Campaign.

In the latest poll, anti-casino voters outnumbered their opponents in every congressional district except the 3rd, where 50 percent of those in the Louisville district support allowing casinos.

Women were more likely to oppose casinos, as were Republicans. Among independents, 49 percent opposed casinos and 39 percent supported them. Younger voters were more likely to support casinos than older voters.

Political observers say it's not surprising that a monthlong ad campaign would lower support for casinos.

"Had the pro-casino side spent a million dollars saying what we're going to do for education and health care, the poll results would differ," said Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe.

Fletcher has argued that casinos will increase crime, bankruptcy, suicide and divorce in Kentucky, while Beshear contends that allowing a limited number of casinos would create hundreds of millions of new tax dollars for education and health care.

When asked to choose which candidate's casino argument they agree with, 39 percent of respondents chose Fletcher and 32 percent chose Beshear. The other 29 percent were not sure.

Teresa Newman, a Bowling Green Democrat who says she tends to vote Republican, sided with Fletcher.

She said casino gambling has so far dominated the race, which has sparked her to back the governor "even though I don't support Ernie Fletcher in some things."

She said she's most concerned about an increase in gambling addictions.

"The people who can afford to gamble and tend to want to do that, there's plenty of opportunity for them to travel to do that," she said. "When you bring it to your hometown, the people who can't afford to do it -- it makes it too easy for them. I don't want it in my town."

Eric Smith, a Lexington Democrat who voted for Fletcher in 2003, sided with Beshear's message. The self-described liberal has never been to a casino, but said casinos would "benefit the state in various ways, especially for education."

Still, Smith said the issue won't have any effect on his vote. He "deeply regrets" voting for Fletcher, who was indicted -- along with 14 other officials -- for allegedly hiring and firing protected state workers for political reasons.

It was Fletcher's decision to pardon his entire administration that disenchanted Smith.

"He totally discredited himself," he said.